Agricultural economists at the University of Illinois have prepared information to estimate ARC-CO farm bill payments for corn and soybeans in the 2015 growing season. In Illinois, the ARC-CO payment for corn is estimated to average over $65 per base acre with only three counties not expected to receive a payment. IL Corn works closely with University of Illinois economists, tracking data like this as we consider policy considerations for the next farm bill and any forthcoming changes to the crop insurance program.

The full version of this article is posted on FarmDoc at http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2016/02/2015-arc-co-payment-estimates-corn-soybeans.html  by Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

Nick Paulson, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois.

Summary

Despite corn and soybean yields which generally above average in most areas in 2015, low price levels projected for corn and soybeans for the 2015/16 marketing year make ARC-CO payments for both crops likely across much of the US. Using county yields released by NASS last week, payments for ARC-CO were estimated at the midpoint of the price range in the February WASDE report for corn and soybeans. Using these yields and price levels, a large proportion of counties are expected to trigger 2015 ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans, with a significant number of counties hitting the maximum payment level of 10% of the county benchmark revenue.

In Illinois, the ARC-CO payment for corn is estimated to average over $65 per base acre with only three counties not expected to receive a payment. For soybeans, the average ARC-CO payment estimate is just over $28 per base acre in Illinois, again with the majority of counties expected to receive some payment.

2015 ARC-CO payments are only provided as estimates at this time. The final yields used in calculating payments can differ from the yields released by NASS, and will also cover additional counties in the US. The final MYA price levels for corn and soybeans will not be known with certainty until the marketing year ends in August. However, where NASS yields are available, estimates for the 2015 ARC-CO payment levels can be helpful for planning purposes.