USDA PREDICTS LOWER ENDING STOCKS, HIGHER CORN PRICE
Exports during the month of April hit a record high, beating the previous high set in November 1989. Ethanol and by-product production was also higher than expected. These two markets using more corn than anticipated leads to lower ending stocks in the June 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Following an export boom in April, the data leads us to believe that the month of May will see continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are a record high.
Projected 2018-19 corn used for ethanol is also raised 50 million bushels.
Less supply and more market demand equal ending stock predictions lowered 105 million bushels to 1.577 billion bushels. If this forecast comes true, the 2018-19 ending stocks would be at the lowest level since 2013-14.
Your college economics class would tell you that less supply and more demand also equal price increases for each bushel.
As we look around the world, the report also explains that Russian corn production is down, as is Brazil corn production due to below normal rainfall during May. Foreign corn ending stocks are also lowered since the May WASDE report, reflecting reductions for the EU, Brazil, and Vietnam.