GRAINS COUNCIL TRACKS ETHANOL, DDGS

Tricia Braid

May, 12, 2014  |  Today's News

Illinois Corn Marketing Board partners with the U.S. Grains Council to promote corn, ethanol, and DDGS to export markets. This is a key relationship since in Illinois, over half the corn leaves the state. Additionally, we are an ethanol surplus state. If all the ethanol we produce was used in Illinois, we could replace 30 percent of our gasoline demand. That means that international export opportunities play a role in those markets, as well.

In the latest update, USGC writes:

USDA released their first estimate of ethanol production for the 2014/15 crop year and it is the same as the 2013/14 season: 5,050 million bushels. This estimate is as good as USDA can do without receiving more insights about 2014/15 ethanol production mandates from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). However, EPA is not being rushed in their decision making process about the 2014/15 season because they have received a supportive ruling from the Court of Appeal for the District of Columbia Circuit which concludes that EPA has wide latitude in its decision making process.

There was a small week-to-week decline in total U.S. ethanol stocks from 17.2 down to 17.1 million barrels for the week ending May 2, 2014. Total stocks are slightly above the year-ago level of 16.8 million barrels. The current stable stocks level was helped by the fact that ethanol imports remain zero and there was a slight reduction in the weekly ethanol production levels, down from a prior week average daily rate of 898,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 894,000 bpd. Near-term production seems likely to remain at similar levels, but will likely decline further if profit margins for ethanol facilities continue to work lower. The following are the differentials between corn and co-products across the Corn Belt for the week ending May 9:

Illinois differential is $3.19 per bushel, in comparison to $3.67 the prior week and $2.49 a year ago.